Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.800493 11.505583 13.369333 15.551192 18.028525 20.746906 23.948242
2025-02-02 7.303441 9.655947 12.485121 16.106639 20.584573 25.903162 32.657627
2025-02-09 5.729084 8.393290 11.867839 16.655260 22.993351 31.001306 41.773473
2025-02-16 4.463238 7.179875 10.989832 16.588471 24.445908 34.900063 49.642726
2025-02-23 3.457924 6.076660 10.006243 16.129053 25.180894 37.781365 56.288441
2025-03-02 2.668599 5.109433 9.016605 15.447711 25.420643 39.882495 61.907627
2025-03-09 2.186321 4.526637 8.497117 15.356480 26.443708 43.093218 69.238585
2025-03-16 1.775076 3.972197 7.918231 15.060540 27.067836 45.698436 75.796058
2025-03-23 1.601883 3.821871 7.998253 15.845189 29.453486 51.115139 86.886570
2025-03-30 1.374971 3.513365 7.738473 15.992187 30.771466 54.918559 95.690125
2025-04-06 1.172867 3.210307 7.436315 16.011642 31.848123 58.374773 104.116632
2025-04-13 0.997686 2.925676 7.121603 15.957631 32.768537 61.605035 112.331860
2025-04-20 0.946971 2.933295 7.422547 17.152303 36.091536 69.172646 128.251443
2025-04-27 0.865426 2.847378 7.514903 17.949588 38.762597 75.821071 143.063966
2025-05-04 0.783474 2.740694 7.544519 18.619698 41.246743 82.297205 157.942439
2025-05-11 0.667850 2.509491 7.250232 18.569796 42.330025 86.348958 168.868033
2025-05-18 0.547102 2.225999 6.779537 18.071929 42.470416 88.686935 176.905413
2025-05-25 0.436276 1.934966 6.232707 17.323818 42.018250 89.877623 182.936213
2025-06-01 0.370389 1.770710 5.982651 17.224138 42.889350 93.581543 193.659382
2025-06-08 0.307066 1.591831 5.657401 16.898132 43.239456 96.293412 202.680329
2025-06-15 0.289303 1.581773 5.808666 17.763215 46.245851 104.325565 221.939104
2025-06-22 0.253512 1.485535 5.689018 17.925229 47.696465 109.353362 235.753776
2025-06-29 0.219031 1.380901 5.523692 17.946677 48.826017 113.792704 248.640430